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  Location: Rural / Semi / Urban     Night light: Rural / Semi / Urban
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 Station
to
Use these controls to limit the stations used with other functions.
  • To reset the filter, set a new baseline period - this clears the filter and computes a new baseline
  • Use the additional range fields to require a few years near one date and a few near another
The checkboxes are used to define the default filter used when is clicked.

    Default FiltersFromToWith at Least this many
    measurements within the range
    Click button to apply
    Set baseline
If any of the 3 checkboxes - Align stations on common baseline, Filter stations, Hide filtered sites - is selected, then Hi/Lo uses only the non-filtered stations.

For instance, of the 5,255 available GHCN adjusted land sites,

  • Of those, only 4567 have 15 years of data between 1961 and 1990
  • Of those, only 1000 have  8 years of data between 1900 and 1910
  • Of those, only   520 have  8 years of data between 2000 and 2010


To display individual sites in the lower plot, select *station* and click on the site. To display purple (restricted) sites in the lower plot, turn off *Align stations on common baseline*.

Filters



    stations where





    between and
    Compute options on period from to
    BELGRANO This base was moved, but the 8C temperature increase was not corrected
    TULCAN/EL ROS There is a major 10°C discontinuity in the data
    Ship data
    There are 7 ships included with the land data.
    Only ship M has enough data to be of any value.

Station data

    ID Click on a station to populate this The first 3 digits indicate the country
    Name  
    Lat  
    Long  
    Pop Type Rural/Semi/Urban - Station type by size of nearest town
    Light Type Rural/Semi/Urban - Station type by light seen from space
    Temperature
    (°C)
    min avg max  
    0 0 0
    ghcn plots These show raw and adjusted data
    Search Berkeley Earth There is no simple translation to their ID's - so search

          # found

      Adding the baseline to the difference is controlled via the Plot Controls tab

Plot Controls

    Set plot limits
    Control Charty max
    y min
    x minx max




Stations plot



(Adj minus Raw)
        (Adj minus Raw plus Adj_baseline)

This is good for looking at small regions and/or countries

Hi/Lo plot

Averages plot

Trend Lines

Trend line formulas - currently, only on Hi/Low graph
    Just fit a line to the end points
    y = (y0 + 273.15)exp( (t-t0)/k ) - 273.15
    y = (y0 - ymin + 0.1)exp( (t-t0)/k ) + ymin - 0.1
to

- Minimum number of years required to produce a linear regression

Normally, the trend line is fitted to the displayed, averaged data. A full regression fits the trend line to all the data (perhaps 200,000 points), not just the plotted data (about 100 points). As a result, the slope and the R2 values will be different.

    using all the data points from all stations

     

The Null Hypothesis is that the temperature change is indistinguishable from zero. For this to be true, ....

Load Local Data

Load data files from local storage. While the button shows all the files in a directory, only xml files with the predefined names will be read. Therefore, you can simply select them all. Once a file is loaded, it will not try and load it again.

Because of how javascript security is implemented, there is no way to load data from a local storage device unless the user manually selects the files via an input files control .. which is what this page provides.

Standard deviation (σ)

This applies only to the plot with the number of stations (sites) chart displayed at the bottom

The values are not meaningful if the average is "Corrected for station distribution"

To produce an approximately unbiased estimator of the standard deviation of an average of averages, the divisor should be (N - 1.5)
    N is the number of stations selected
    Creates a biased estimate
    Creates an unbiased estimate when applied to a variance or a mean
    Approximates an unbiased estimate when applied to a standard deviation of averages

Map

    Select an alternate map
    This is the default map
    Deserts, Forests, Ice, and more ref
    The Earth at night ref

UCAR and Keeling CO2 Data

The UCAR Simple Climate Model predicts how much the temperature will increase for an increase in CO2 - however, their data actually demonstrates that the model is wrong. By default, only the data after 1900 is shown in the Hi/Lo graph and, with a sensitivity of 3 or 4 and using 1975 as the base year, the agreement between the theory and the actual data is pretty good. However, the complete UCAR "historical data" is a poor match to the theory - when data from the previous century is included (use the checkbox), the correlation is terrible.

The Keeling data (1958 to present - only the August averages are plotted) is almost identical to the UCAR data for that period.




Sensitivity - ΔT when CO2 is doubled

GISS 2015 annual anomalies

GISS data provided via Bloomberg

By default, the Plot Controls tab limits this to 1900

Temperature offset °C - only anomalies are provided, add this to compare with actual temperatures

  • 11 °C compares well with 100 year data (set via Basic Filters tab)
  • 14 °C compares well with UCAR data (CO2 tab)

Functions to compare Raw and Adjusted data

Both the Raw (Unadjusted) and Adjusted data must be loaded for these functions to work.

    Select a station coloring scheme for the map
    The adjusted trend is warmer (red) or colder (blue) than the unadjusted trend
    Green means they are close - Light grey means they are identical
    Delta °C/decade per bin
    Red  - The adjustment converted a negative slope into a positive slope
    Blue - The adjustment converted a positive slope into a negative slope
    Green means the slopes are close - Light grey means the slope signs are identical
    Delta °C/decade per bin
    The adjusted mean is warmer (red) or colder (blue) than the unadjusted mean
    Green means they are close - Light grey means they are identical
    Delta °C baseline average per bin
    This compares the baselines defined via the dates on Basic Filters tab
    The adjusted baseline is warmer (red) or colder (blue) than the unadjusted value
    Green means they are close - Light grey means they are identical
    Delta °C baseline average per bin
    The adjusted data frequently has fewer years than the raw
    Delta years per bin
    Identical raw and adjusted station values are light grey, the rest are red.
    Perform the analysis on the period from to

Filters to help compare Raw and Adjusted data

The features on this page will not functional unless both an adjusted and an unadjusted (raw) pair of datasets is loaded.

Note that all the adjusted stations match a raw station, but that there are 294 more raw stations than adjusted stations.



    stations that are




     
    (raw has 294 more than adj)
    (761 land based stations)
     


    stations where the change in





    between and
    Compute options on period from to

Islands

Select or filter for islands with relatively small land areas and use them as proxies for ocean temperatures.

Each island is associated with a nearby ocean "station". The ocean values are fairly bogus - the same values are in the raw and adjusted databases.

    Years of data Between
    99 1900 to 2010
    50 1950 to 2010

Limit stations to 50 years of data from 1950 to 2010

These are just for development

Histograms

Option Bin
Size


This application plots a graph that requires the HTML5 canvas component.
As a result, you need a more modern web browser, sorry!

Show data for the period to

Number of sites included excluded

     

The data range for computing the Baseline Average Temperature is set on the Basic Filters tab

Bin Color Definitions

Bin Colors are normally used on dot-maps
- these controls allow you to define them.

  • Slopes are normally between +/-0.3°C/decade
  • Deltas are normally between +/-2°C
    • Anomalies are normally +/-2°C
    • Adj-Raw are normally +/-2°C
  • Temperatures are from -20°C to 50°C
  • Counts are from zero to 5,000

The following options only work with the
Map Data, Raw vs Adj, and Ani tabs

   
   
   

For the Slopes, Anomalies, and Adj-Raw ranges, I prefer the extremes to be red and blue, the values near zero to be green, and the values that are exactly zero to be grey.

   


Slopes Adj - Raw Temperatures Color
+inf +inf +inf
-inf -inf -inf

Map Markers

    Define the Map stations markers
      Marker Line Color Fill Color Size
    Unselected
    Selected
    Filtered
    Data Map
    Unselected
    Ocean
    Selected
    Ocean
    Unselected
    Failed Baseline

Color Code Station Data

Select a station coloring scheme for the map
Data Bin size Date range
°C/decade Show data for the period

to

years
°C
This shows the baseline temperatures
Use the date range on the Basic Filters tab
  Set the colors and number of steps via the Bin Colors tab
This is the default showing which stations are selected
Not selected - red (land) blue (ocean) / Selected - green (included) purple (excluded)

xy Scatter Plots       Number of selected sites included excluded
Option Axis Bin Size
Y X




        x-axis selection

This application plots a graph that requires the HTML5 canvas component.
As a result, you need a more modern web browser, sorry!

Show data for the period to
These control the Number of Counts per Bin color code

            Marker size

The data range for computing the Baseline Average Temperature is set on the Basic Filters tab

Animations

Select a station coloring scheme for the map
Data Bin size Controls
°C Show data for the period

to


°C
°C
°C
  Set the colors and number of steps via the Bin Colors tab
This is the default map coloring showing which stations are selected
Not selected - red (land) blue (ocean) / Selected - green (included) purple (excluded)

Current year   Speed x 0.01 sec/update (100 = 1 second)